decision-making under uncertainty

  1. 5 May 2023

    AI and the last mile

    AI can get you 90% or 95% of the way through a project surprisingly quickly. Getting the final stretch — the bit that makes it actually ready — is often harder than everything that came before. It's a…

  2. 31 May 2019

    You’ll never have the “right” amount of insurance (but don’t let that stop you)

    You'll never have the "right" amount of insurance, because you're dealing with uncertainty. You can only tell what you needed with hindsight or a crystal ball. For most people the best case is paying…

  3. 3 September 2018

    The median is not the message

    A friend's cancer diagnosis sent me back to Stephen Jay Gould's essay on being told his own disease had a median survival of eight months. Most people would read that as "I'll be dead in eight months"…

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