hindsight bias

1. 17 August 2023

   Y2K and Covid

   I think about Y2K a lot when I think about Covid. As time goes on, most people seem to think Y2K was a storm in a teacup — and I suspect Covid risks the same fate. But that framing gets things backwar…

2. 3 June 2022

   Every asset class has bad years, even bonds

   Bonds have been performing terribly, yet I still call them defensive assets. Every asset class has bad years; regression to the mean is real; bond losses remain smaller than share losses; and your cap…

3. 27 March 2020

   Could I have picked this market crash?

   COVID-19 had me questioning a lot of things, including my long-standing devotion to index-based investing. In retrospect it felt like I could have picked the crash — so could I have? Probably not. The…