index funds

1. 27 March 2020

   Could I have picked this market crash?

   COVID-19 had me questioning a lot of things, including my long-standing devotion to index-based investing. In retrospect it felt like I could have picked the crash — so could I have? Probably not. The…

2. 19 July 2019

   My (in)efficient market hypothesis

   I don't think markets are efficient. Markets move up and down for all sorts of unpredictable, weird reasons. But they're inefficient in ways we can't predict — and valuing a share means betting on a f…

3. 6 August 2018

   The folly of predicting market downturns

   I'll start with a prediction. At some point in the future, the sharemarket will go down. It might go down in a big way. That's as accurate a prediction as anyone can make — timing and scale are out of…

4. 29 October 2017

   How to get better-than-market returns

   For most people, I recommend low-cost, index-based funds — don't try to beat the market, just make sure the market doesn't beat you. But the honest answer is that you *can* get better-than-market retu…

5. 12 April 2017

   “Hurry up and wait” – why laziness is an investor’s best friend

   In most of life, the best things go to those who hustle. Spend more, get more. Investing is the inversion: the riches go to those who wait, and performance and fees are inversely related. You’re rewar…

6. 4 April 2017

   “Fees never sleep.” – Warren Buffett’s bet

   For most people, I advocate investing in low-cost passive investments. Warren Buffett is probably a bigger advocate than me. He bet $500,000 that a low-cost S&P 500 index fund would beat a basket of h…