luck

1. 19 September 2019

   The Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks, and Luck

   A feature of knockout tournaments like the Rugby World Cup is that the "best" team often doesn't win. If one side is genuinely good enough to beat another 55% of the time, the weaker team still takes…

2. 11 June 2017

   How to be lucky

   We can organise our lives to make good luck more likely and bad luck less costly. Invert the standard risk-management moves — eliminate, reduce, transfer, retain — and you get a framework for opportun…

3. 25 May 2017

   Of time, trains, and opportunity

   You can't force opportunities. But you can be ready for when one arrives. Leaving the house a minute late doesn't just cost you a minute if you miss the train — it costs you 30 minutes, or the whole d…

4. 12 April 2017

   “Hurry up and wait” – why laziness is an investor’s best friend

   In most of life, the best things go to those who hustle. Spend more, get more. Investing is the inversion: the riches go to those who wait, and performance and fees are inversely related. You’re rewar…

5. 9 April 2017

   Adventures in the multiverse

   Next time you're facing a decision with uncertain outcomes, imagine 100 versions of yourself splitting into parallel universes. Which decision leads to good outcomes across the widest slice of them?

6. 20 February 2016

   Good luck = the absence of bad luck

   One of the best forms of good luck is the absence of bad luck. I've been lucky in that sense — no major health issues, no tragedies. The defensive side of managing luck is every bit as important as co…

7. 23 January 2016

   Is there a relationship between luck and morality?

   It's easy to think of ourselves and others as moral or ethical people — as if it's an internal trait, largely independent of context. But what if circumstances play a significant role in our actions a…